As we have seen, New York has a functional closer, and that is certainly a good thing. In addition to such a closer, a good team could use two solid set-up men. The first of these men, for New York, is Kyle Farnsworth. Here I will copy and update my prior profile of Farnsworth:
Contract Status: Farnsworth is in the second year of a three
year contract. Last year the Yankees cared as much about breaking him
in as they did about his performance; this year that balance swings
more toward the present. Farnsworth’s contract grants New York a little
security with Rivera in a contract year.
2006: Farnsworth wasn’t what the Yankees wanted, with an ERA
above 4 in 2006. Nevertheless, his high BABIP and K / BB ratio indicate
that Farnsworth may experience a sharp rise in performance value.
Forecast: PECOTA projects Farnsworth at an all-together
respectable and acceptable line. Farnsworth will cover 58IP, throwing
hard and tight with 15 Stuff. His ERA will improve, PECOTA predicts, to
a respectable 3.75. The Forecast isn’t amazing, but it’s nice to
know New York has a good arm available.
Upside: As might be expected for a pitcher with his stuff,
Farnsworth has a major upside. With some luck, and some sharp control,
Farnsworth could cover 70 IP with a 2.33 ERA at the 90% level. Those
numbers would be closer material; they would make him one of the more
distinguished set-up men in the game today. His breakout rate is
incredibly good (38%), and PECOTA projects improvement as likely (68%).
Downside: Naturally, the downside on Farnsworth is also
acute. In the case of a 10% forecast, the Yankees would have to drop
him (and his corresponding 6-ERA). Farnsworth is not yet the certain
asset we see in Rivera. Farnsworth nevertheless has a low collapse rate
(19%) and an insignificant chance of injury.
2007: In 14.4 XIP this year, Farnsworth has not been effective. His ERA is in the high fours, which makes him an acceptable reliever, but not an acceptable set up man. His HR / 9 is up from last year, to 1.3, which is not a good sign. Meanwhile his command is poor (an appalling 4.5 BB / 9). Worst of all, his K-rate is way, way down (to 5.0 from 9.6 in ’06). It’s still early (relatively) in the season, but Kyle needs to pick things up.
The Big Picture: Here is the status of the New York Bull-Pen thus far:
- Closer: Mariano Rivera
- Set-Up: Kyle Farnsworth
Applied Sabremetrics 