Et Cetera…

American League East Offense

(2) New York: 596
(4) Boston: 542
(10) Tampa: 488
(11) Toronto: 485
(12) Baltimore: 474

Commentary: New York and Boston remain strong offensive teams while Tampa Bay, Toronto and Baltimore continue to close toward the cellar of the American League. The AL East, outside of Boston and New York, is definitely not the offensive juggernaut it used to be in the early part of this decade (when Toronto had a balanced, all-cylinders offense and Baltimore had a more powerful Tejada and Mora). Terry Crowley, the Baltimore hitting coach, definitely needs to get axed. 

American League East Defense

(1) Boston: 410
(T3) Toronto: 454
(T3) Baltimore: 454
(7) New York: 473
(14) Tampa: 656

Commentary: Big news on the defensive end. Boston remains in solid first place, but Baltimore improves steadily and Toronto throws thirteen shutouts while building skyscrapers with her eyelashes to improve to tie for third place. New York falls to roughly the middle of the AL East pack, with Tampa bay holding down the caboose as always. Jim Hickey (pitching coach fore the Devil Rays) should get fired. 

American League East Run Differentials, Letter Grades

Boston: +132, A+
New York: +123, A+
Toronto: +31, B
Baltimore: +20, B-
Tampa: -168, F

Commentary: The ranking remains the same, but the letter grades change. New York is finally playing the baseball everyone expected, posting A+ performance with a great differential. Meanwhile, Toronto and Baltimore are rewarded for their improved defensive play: Toronto with a solid B and Baltimore with a B-. Tampa Bay remains hopeless (Andrew Friedman should get fired) while Boston remains invincible as always.

American League East Playoff Chances

(1) Boston: 87%

(2) New York: 11%

Commentary: Boston continues to solidify their lead, as the season closes and they approach the 95th percentile. Meanwhile, the Wild Card race continues to heat up. It remains a six team race, although Anaheim has dropped out (due to their security in the AL West) and been replaced by Boston (which now can better hedge her chances due to her strong play). New York is now surprisingly the Wild Card favorite, with a 29% chance to make the playoffs. Cleveland is the other strong candidate; together New York and Cleveland account for 50% of the race.

(1) New York: 29%
(2) Cleveland: 21%
(3) Detroit: 15%
(4) Seattle: 12%
(T5) Minnesota: 7%
(T5) Boston: 7%

New York continues to present a strange case, under-performing her Pythagorean projection significantly. New York is eight games back of her projection. In other words, with average luck and management, New York would be up four games in the wild card race and tied with Boston for the AL East lead. This suggests that Joe Torre should be let go at the end of the 2007 Season.


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