Mike Mussina was the starter we tentatively selected for the #5 slot. Let’s see how he has done, and then refresh the big picture:
Mussina’s predicted ERA was 4.22, and his current ERA is 5.08. New York has played 69 games. Therefore, we weight the actual ERA 43% and the projection 57%.
The actual component of Mussina’s ERA is 5.08 (0.43) = 2.18
The predicted component of Mussina’s ERA is 4.22 (0.57) = 2.41
Therefore, Mussina’s current weighted ERA projection is: 4.59
This makes Mussina a good number five starter, and tells us we have him in (roughly) the right place. The big picture so far:
- Roger Clemens (A)
- Phillip Hughes (A)
- Andy Pettitte (+)
- Mike Mussina (#)
- Darrell Rasner
A represents absent, + represents overperformance and # signifies steady performance.