Update: Starter #5

Mike Mussina was the starter we tentatively selected for the #5 slot. Let’s see how he has done, and then refresh the big picture:

Mussina’s predicted ERA was 4.22, and his current ERA is 5.08. New York has played 69 games. Therefore, we weight the actual ERA 43% and the projection 57%.

The actual component of Mussina’s ERA is 5.08 (0.43) = 2.18
The predicted component of Mussina’s ERA is 4.22 (0.57) = 2.41
Therefore, Mussina’s current weighted ERA projection is: 4.59

This makes Mussina a good number five starter, and tells us we have him in (roughly) the right place. The big picture so far:

  1. Roger Clemens (A)
  2. Phillip Hughes (A)
  3. Andy Pettitte (+)
  4. Mike Mussina (#)
  5. Darrell Rasner

A represents absent, + represents overperformance and # signifies steady performance.

Advertisements

One comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s