Update: Set-Up

The current set-up man on the New York staff is Kyle Farnsworth. Given his somewhat shoddy real performance our expectations shouldn’t be too high, but let’s calculate his weighted ERA in any event:

Kyle Farnsworth, Weighted ERA
(ERA) (Games Played / 162) + (Projected ERA) [(162 – Games Played) / 162]
(4.46) (93 / 162) + (3.62) [(162 – 93) / 162]
(4.46) (0.57) + (3.62) (69 / 162)
2.54 + (3.62) (0.43)
2.54 + 1.56
4.10

As predicted, Farnsworth is not throwing well enough to qualify as the New York set-up man. He is a strong long-reliever, and belongs on the staff, but he is not currently set-up material. Staff Status:

  1. Closer: Mariano Rivera [-]
  2. Set: Kyle Farnsworth [-]
  3. Short: Chris Britton
  4. Short: (L) Mike Myers
  5. Long: Luis Vizcaino
  6. Long: Scott Proctor
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Update: Starter #2

Can Roger Clemens retain his status as the second-starter for New York? Let’s perform the calculation. New York has played 93 games:

Roger Clemens, Weighted ERA

(ERA) (Games Played / 162) + (Projected ERA) [(162 – Games Played) / 162]
(3.88) (93 / 162) + (3.34) [(162 – 93) / 162]
(3.88) (0.57) + (3.34) (69 / 162)
2.21 + (3.34) (0.43)
2.21 + 1.44
3.65

Although Clemens has pitched well, he has unfortunately pitched like a good third starter, rather than a second starter. Since he was absent at last audit, this means Clemens is dropped from the second starter position. Can any New York startes fill this role (Weighted ERA of 3.00 – 3.50)?

-Brian Bruney is a reliever.
-Kyle Farnsworth is a reliever.
-Kei Igawa is a starter. Let’s audit his Weighted ERA.

Kei Igawa, Weighted ERA

(ERA) (Games Played / 162) + (Projected ERA) [(162 – Games Played) / 162]
(6.97) (93 / 162) + (4.28) [(162 – 93) / 162]
(6.97) (0.57) + (4.28) (69 / 162)
3.97 + (4.28) (0.43)
3.97 + 1.84
5.81

Kei Igawa is qualified as a sixth starter, not as a second starter.
-Mike Mussina is currently listed as the fifth starter.
-Andy Pettitte is currently listed as the fourth starter.
-Scott Proctor is a reliever.
-Edwar Ramirez is a reliever.
-Mariano Rivera is a reliever.
-Ron Villone is a reliever.
-Luis Vizcaino is a reliever.
-Chien-Ming Wang is a non-listed starter. Let’s calculate his Weighted ERA.

Chien-Ming Wang, Weighted ERA

(ERA) (Games Played / 162) + (Projected ERA) [(162 – Games Played) / 162]
(3.44) (93 / 162) + (4.29) [(162 – 93) / 162]
(3.44) (0.57) + (4.29) (69 / 162)
1.96 + (4.29) (0.43)
1.96 + 1.84
3.80

Chien-Ming Wang is qualified as a third starter, not as a second starter.

Therefore, New York currently does not have a starting pitcher qualified as a second starter. The current starting rotation:

1.    [No Starter]
2.    [No Starter]
3.    Phillip Hughes (A)
4.    Andy Pettitte (+)
5.    Mike Mussina (#)
6.    Darrell Rasner (A)

Et Cetera…

American League East Offense

(T2) New York: 471
(T4) Boston: 442
(9) Toronto: 419
(10) Tampa: 411
(12) Baltimore: 397

Commentary: This order is probably likely to last, with only minor changes, until the end of the season. New York and Boston continue to play amongst the best hitting teams, while the rest of the AL East brings up the cellar. I’d say that of the team’s the biggest dissapointment has been Tampa Bay. Tampa has always had a bad team but earlier in the season it looked at least as though their young offense had some promise. I guess that was a hasty evaluation. 

American League East Defense

(1) Boston: 350
(4) New York: 395
(T6) Toronto: 407
(9) Baltimore: 412
(14) Tampa: 544

Commentary: Only Toronto and Baltimore switch in the defensive rankings. Boston and New York continue to play amongst the best defensive teams in the American League, while Toronto and Baltimore continue to play around average. Tampa Bay continues to have appalling defensive efficiency. It’s incredible that New York has a .500 record with such a strong offense and solid defnese. This is one of the most unlucky seasons on memory for the Yankees. 

American League East Run Differentials, Letter Grades

Boston: +92, A+
New York: +76, A
Toronto: +12, B
Baltimore: -15, C
Tampa: -133, F

Commentary: The only novel story continues to be Toronto’s improved play. Toronto was previously by any standards a poor team, but now is actually a pretty good team, with a positive run differential. Tampa continues to play just terribly, while New York and Boston continue to play very well. Baltimore is the average team in the division, impressive given the rankings which would seem to make them out to be far worse.

American League East Playoff Chances

(1) Boston: 84%

(2) New York: 13%

Commentary: Boston continues to dominate the AL East, with a 84% chance of winning the division. Although New York is actually the higher rated team, a ten game lead at the break is hard to pass. The remaining 3% or so largely belongs to Toronto. Meanwhile, the race for the wild card remains heated. The field has narrowed from a seven team race down to six remaining teams. Detroit and Cleveland command a full half of the field, while Seattle, New York, Minnesota and Anaheim all have respectable positions.

(1) Cleveland: 29%
(2) Detroit: 20%
(3) Seattle: 14%
(4) New York: 12%
(5) Minnesota: 9%
(6) Anaheim: 7%

Update: Closer

New York has played 86 of 162 games. Therefore, real performance counts for 53% while PECOTA counts for 47%.

Mariano Rivera: Real ERA [(0.53)(3.60)] + Projected ERA [(0.47)(2.74)]
Mariano Rivera: 1.91 + 1.29
Mariano Rivera: 3.20

Rivera’s performance level has been what a team desires from a good short reliever, not what a team requires from its closer. Therefore, Rivera is underperforming the closer role thus far in the season.

Bullpen Status:

  1. Closer: Mariano Rivera [-]
  2. Set: Kyle Farnsworth
  3. Short: Chris Britton
  4. Short: Mike Myers (L)
  5. Long: Luis Vizcaino
  6. Long: Scott Proctor

Update: Ace

New York still has no starters that can legitimately be called aces. Chien-Ming Wang and Roger Clemens are probably the closest currently active. The latter is already overperforming. The former is an excellent pitcher, but probably lacks the lethality to be an ace starter. The sad news is that no such pitcher appears to be available in the offseason.

Rotation Status:

1.    [No Starter]
2.    Roger Clemens (A)
3.    Phillip Hughes (A)
4.    Andy Pettitte (+)
5.    Mike Mussina (#)
6.    Darrell Rasner (A)

Et Cetera…

American League East Offense

(T3) New York: 420
(6) Boston: 400
(8) Toronto: 391
(10) Tampa: 381
(11) Baltimore: 367

Commentary: The ranking for offense are beginning to lock in. The only changes this week are a slight drop for both New York and Tampa. The latter indicates that Tampa has little promising it can take from this season, even isometrically. The former continues to show that the New York offense, which was considered on paper capable of scoring a thousand runs, is quite underwhelming. It is unclear that the current New York offense will even be able to score nine hundred runs. Boston’s fall from grace and subsequent stabilization indicate the defensive nature of the team. While it was fun to watch them dominate both categories, this ranking makes more sense. 

American League East Defense

(1) Boston: 319
(T5) New York: 369
(7) Baltimore: 380
(8) Toronto: 382
(14) Tampa: 490

Commentary: The defensive ranking continue to be fairly volatile, with the big news being Boston’s reclamation of the lead in the AL, passing Oakland for first place. New York continues to play around the top five, with Baltimore and Toronto posting average or so defensive efficiency. The only truly stable player has been Tampa, which continues to hoard an undesired last place. Boston’s strong defensive is what gives the team it’s virtue; New York’s strong pairing is what gives the team some hope. 

American League East Run Differentials, Letter Grades

Boston: +81, A+
New York: +51, A
Toronto: +9, B-
Baltimore: -13, C
Tampa: -109, F

Commentary: Continued stabilization is evident in the letter grades; the only minor change being a promototion in Toronto from C+ to B-. Boston and New York continue to play very well, while Baltimore and Toronto continue to play decently. Tampa is really the only stinker in the division. Boy Tampa really doesn’t have much of a team do they?

American League East Playoff Chances

(1) Boston: 92%

(2) New York: 24%

Commentary: A similar story to tell this week. New York fails to make any progress, and therefore Boston continues to maintain it’s high percentage through decisis. New York needs to go on a correcting run soon, time is running out for an altogether excellent team that for some reason isn’t bothering to realize how good it is. Wild Card
leaders are as follows:

(1) Detroit: 26%
(2) Cleveland: 19%
(3) New York: 14%
(T4) Minnesota: 10%
(T4) Seattle: 10%
(6) Oakland: 9%
(7) Anaheim: 6%

Long Reliever#2: Scott Proctor

We are drawing down to the end of the wire. With our selection of a sixth long reliever we will have fully tabulated and profiled the Yankees 2007 pitching staff, including six starters and six relievers. To remind ourselves, we are looking a second long reliever, one whose formulated prediction puts his ERA above four but below five. Such a reliever exists in Scott Proctor, given as follows:

-Compound Prediction: ERA (Games Played / 162) + PECOTA predicted ERA [(162 – Games Played / 162]
-Scott Proctor: 3.98 (79 / 162) + 4.19 [(162 – 79) / 162) = 3.98 (0.49) + 4.19 (83 / 162) = 1.95 + 4.19 (0.51) = 1.95 + 2.14 = 4.09

Contract Status: Scott Proctor has under five years of major league service, and is counted as a prospect. Therefore, New York controls him for the Major League minimum, for at least another three seasons.

2006: Proctor was a pleasant surprise in the 2006 season, posting a 3.52 ERA in 83 games. He  threw just over a hundred innings, a respectable total, which came to 93.0 XIP. He struck out 89 batters and walked 33, allowing twelve home runs through the season. That translates to good control of power (0.9 HR/9 rate) and solid command (2.6 BB/9), the only weakness being a weak strikeout rate (7.5 K/9). Proctor was worth 4.0 wins in 2006. Considering that justifies a salary of eight million dollars, Proctor was one of the most valuable members of the club in the ’06 Season.

Forecast: PECOTA’s projection for Proctor in 2007 is a sharp decline. His ERA is predicted to rest at 4.19. The primary cause is a worsening of all three of his peripheral stats. His BB/9 is predicted to rise to the borderline (at 3.0 BB/9), his strikeout rate is predicted to drop to 7.0 / 9 and his control of power is also predicted to worsen, to 1.3 / 9. Still, his WARP is predicted to be 1.6, which still makes him a steal as a prospect.

Upside: Proctor has a 56% improvement rate and a robust 26% breakout rate, which makes you wonder about the pessimistic weighted prediction. At the 90% level he will play as a set-up man would, posting a sub-3 ERA (2.88) with essentially his peripherals from 2006 and a lot of luck (BABIP of .269).

Downside: Proctor has a 20% collapse rate, which is high, and a ******** 23% attrition rate (which is very high). His 10% prediction is total unusability, and that with a low Beta of 0.84. The 10% prediction puts his ERA in the sevens and would force him to be dropped to AAA or worse.

2007: Proctor’s 2007 season thus far has been something of a mixed bag. He has outperformed his PECOTA projection, but not lived up to his 2006 season. He has so far posted a 3.98 ERA, but his peripherals have been way down. Although his control of power has been improved, his BB/9 is now way up (to an unhealthy 3.8) and his K/9 is way down (to a puny 5.7). DERA weights his ERA at 4.87, showing that he has benefited heavily from luck. That’s still a $2M bonus to the team, but the second half will really determined the legacy of his ’07 season.

The Big Picture: Here is the status of the New York Bull-Pen thus far:

  1. Closer: Mariano Rivera
  2. Set: Kyle Farnsworth
  3. Short: Chris Britton
  4. Short: Mike Myers (L)
  5. Long: Luis Vizcaino
  6. Long: Scott Proctor

For balance purposes, New York could use another left-handed reliever. Makes you wish they had signed Billy Wagner, doesn’t it?